Assessment of the amplitude of variations in total solar irradiance in the past

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Abstract

An assessment was made of how reliably various modern reconstructions of total solar irradiance reconstruct long-term changes in this value in the past. To solve this problem, a forecast of long-term changes in total solar radiation in 1978−2017 was made using seven reconstructions covering the last 12−13 centuries. The paleoreconstructions used describe long-term variations with average amplitudes from 0.22 W m–2 (series with low amplitude) to 2.36 W m–2 (series with high amplitude). A nonlinear analog prediction method was applied, and the prediction results were compared with the actually measured values. It turned out that the experimentally measured variations in total solar radiation are better predicted by the low-amplitude reconstructions. However, the possibility that solar radiation in the past experienced more significant variations and the increase in total solar radiation after the Maunder Minimum reached 2.5 W m–2 cannot be completely excluded yet. Possible climatic consequences of such solar radiation variations are discussed.

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About the authors

М. G. Ogurtdov

Ioffe institute; Central Astronomical Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences at Pulkovo

Author for correspondence.
Email: maxim.ogurtsov@mail.ioffe.ru
Russian Federation, St. Petersburg; St. Petersburg

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Supplementary files

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2. Fig. 1. (a) - year-averaged composite data series of instrumentally measured TSI. Black line with full squares - unadjusted TSIDU series; gray line with full squares - adjusted TSIDC series; dashed line with empty squares - adjusted TSIPMOD series. (b) - decade-averaged data on instrumentally measured TSI. Black line with full squares is TSIDU, gray line with full squares is TSIDC, dashed line with empty squares is TSIPMOD.

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3. Fig. 2. TSI reconstructions normalized to the experimentally measured TSIDC series. (a) - Delaygue and Bard [2011]; (b) - Roth and Joos [2013]; (c) - Wu et al. [2018]; (d) - Steinhilber et al. [2012]; (e) - Bard et al. [2000]; (e) - Egorova et al. [2018], PHI-MC17; (g) - Shapiro et al. [2011].

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4. Fig. 3. (a) - correlation coefficient between the actually observed and predicted value calculated for the four solar reconstructions used in the paper; (b) - prediction error for these four reconstructions. The calculations were performed using the reconstructions of Steinhilber et al. [2012] (thin black line with full squares); Delaygue and Bard et al. [2011] (bold black line with empty circles); Roth and Joos [2013] (dashed black line with empty squares), Egorova et al. [2018] (dashed gray line with empty circles). Prediction errors were estimated using the uncertainties of the TSI reconstructions.

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5. Fig. 4.The actually observed TSIDC magnitude (gray line with full circles) and its predictions (black lines with empty circles) based on paleoreconstructions: (a) Wu et al.[2018]; (b) Steinhilber et al.[2012]; (c) Delaygue and Bard et al.[2011]; (d) Roth and Joos [2013]; (e) Bard et al. [2000]; (f) Shapiro et al.[2011]; (g) Egorova et al.[2018].

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6. Fig. 5.Dependence of nonlinear prediction quality on STD for different paleoreconstructions.(a) - prediction error made for TSIDU; (b) - probability of P2 prediction made for TSIDU; (c) - prediction error made for TSIDU; (d) - probability of P2 prediction made for TSIDU; (e) - prediction error made for TSIPMOD; (f) - probability of P2 prediction made for TSIPMOD.

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